Polls! Polls! Polls!

(This started as a quick update, but slowly evolved into the monstrous analysis you see before you. Read at your own peril.)

This is one of those moments where I’m going to say what I think, which has some factual basis, but could also be wildly off the mark.

I take in all of my daily political news at RealClearPolitics.com, and you should too. You can literally get everything there. But, back to the point at hand.

RealClearPolitics, to get a sense of the relative position of each candidate, simply takes all poll results and averages them out. Using this method, they currently have Obama ahead about 6%. My sense is that this number is not representative of his current lead.

I believe two things about this race right now:

1. Almost all of the polls are overstating Obama’s lead, but...

2. Obama is, in fact, in the lead by a few points.

Just as a bit of background information for anyone not in the know, election polls in general never simply sample 900-2000 people and report back their answers in simple percentages. And for good reason- the results wouldn’t be very informative if that’s all they did. Say they called 900 people, and 500 said they’d vote for Obama, 300 for McCain, and 100 hadn’t decided. Just taking that at face value would mean Obama would be leading with a whooping 56% of the vote to McCain’s 34%, with 12% undecided. However, if 200 of the people surveyed aren’t registered voters, and 150 of those wanted to vote for Obama, that would skew the result- taking them out, the result would be Obama 50%- McCain 36%, with 14% undecided. The resulting survey would therefore tally the registered voter preference; this is the minimum criteria for any poll measuring the electorate.

However, because it’s a fact that a great many voters don’t actually bother to vote, most polls try to measure likely voters, and this is where things get tricky. Pollsters can have entirely different ideas of what constitutes a likely voter. When you look at the Gallup poll, for instance, you see that using their traditional likely voter model, Obama’s up 2 to 3 points, but with their expanded model, he’s up 6 or 7.

There’s no doubt there will be additional voters this year, so I don’t think either of those results are totally out of left field. However, you’ll notice that, above, I said the RCP average showed Obama up by about 6 points. That’s because there are a great many polls out there that show Obama ahead by something like 12 or 15 points. It’s those polls that I have the real problem with.

Again, I could be totally wrong, and this election might end up seeing a huge shift like that. But I doubt it- the last several elections have been decided almost 50-50 down the line. It’s likely, given the country’s mood, that Republicans have suffered defections and Democrats have gained, but I still don’t believe that represents a 15% swing to their side.

So, back to those polls that have the huge Obama numbers. Aside from kicking out non-voters and trying to determine likely voters, many polls actually weigh their sample to try to make it as representative of the electorate as possible. This means that, if a certain pollster finds out that in his poll he sampled 300 Republicans, 300 Democrats, and 300 Independents, he might actually give more statistical value to the Democratic replies, since there are more of them in the electorate. While this is done with accuracy in mind, I don’t need to tell you it can also lead to all kinds of problems.

For instance, poll respondents can and do lie, for any number of reasons. If I wanted to attempt to skew a poll in a small, personal way, I could tell the pollster that I was a Democrat who had been leaning Obama but had just decided to switch my vote to McCain. This would still reflect my absolute preference (a vote for McCain), but because the pollster weighs Democrats more heavily, my answer has a disproportionate effect on the survey. This example would have the effect of inflating McCain’s numbers, but the converse is equally easy to imagine. Many Republicans switched their affiliation to Democrat during the primaries to prolong the Democratic race. Many of those people, despite being Democrats officially, would probably identify themselves as Republicans to a pollster, and therefore their candidate preference would be reduced in weight in the poll.

Those two things, likely voter model and weighting, are two examples of things that, I believe, are inflating Obama’s numbers in some of the outlier polls. I also think there are several other methodological problems with some of them that are as yet unknown, as the pollsters in question won’t release their polls’ methodologies. But the point is, if you have two polls, one of which shows Obama 12 points ahead and the other of which shows 2, somebody’s wrong.

Why does all this matter? Well, if Obama is only up a few points, which is the case in many battle ground states, a late surge to McCain could very possibly overtake him. And lest you dismiss that possibility, it’s been known to happen to the frontrunners. Bush ended the 2000 campaign up about 6 points in Gallup, and a late surge to Gore nearly cost him the election (it did cost him the popular vote, and he barely squeaked out the Electoral College). Carter ran ahead of Reagan until the very last week of the campaign, and Reagan crushed him nationwide. In both of those cases, an outside event tipped the leaners into one column or the other (Bush’s 20-year old DWI made the headlines the last weekend before the election, and Reagan out-debated Carter). Given that the race is tightening in the last week, I’d say a major embarrassment from Obama’s past does have this possibility. (UPDATE: This Obama video that the LA Times is hiding in an oh-so-nakedly partisan way might be just the thing)

One final thought: If the unthinkable does happen and Obama loses… well, let me just paraphrase Gandalf. “The Left’s wrath will be terrible! Their retribution, swift!” America will be denounced as racist eight ways from Sunday, and there will be endless allegations of electoral fraud on the part of Republicans (literally, endless. You’ll be hearing about it 50 years from now). Hearings will be convened to figure out why polling organizations could possibly be so incredibly wrong, and legislation will be proposed that any public poll has to release its methodology.

And there’ll be riots. Oh, yes, there will be riots.

Funny How 'Tomorrow' Can Turn into 'Two Weeks'...

First off, sorry that you’ve all had to read about the Sarah Palin rally for the last two weeks. I know that was quite grievous for some of you.

This is one of those situations where I’m now so far behind that the events have lost their immediacy, so it would be somewhat fruitless for me to describe them. I’ll just post a few pictures now of that beach trip we took at the end of September- good grief, that’s been a month ago now:

We went back to Charlotte again this past weekend, making the trip Friday night after work and coming back Sunday evening. On Saturday, we met the Kuda women for lunch at a nameless Chinese restaurant, where I shocked Shelly by ordering a "dragon roll". Utilizing my new camera phone, I took this shot of the effervescent ethnic appetizer, which ended up tasting surprisingly good:

OK, the restaurant had a name, I just can’t recall what it was.

Parting ways with the Kudas, I made an ill-advised side trip to the local Hobby Lobby to check out the selection of model ships and airplanes, not that I was planning on buying any. While there, though, Shelly spotted just the perfect mirror to mount over our fireplace, and shortly thereafter, Hobby Lobby had my money and I had their mirror. This disastrous turn of events was eminently foreseeable, and I have only myself to blame. At least I didn’t end up with any additional fall décor.

I have little to complain about, really, as earlier that morning, Shelly had presented me with an early Christmas gift of some value. Apparently, during our previous trip, her mother and her, under false pretenses, had gone out and purchased a Wii game system for me! Shelly, loath to let such a valuable prize collect dust for an additional two months, couldn’t resist giving it to me early! Unfortunately, this eliminates our main reason for visiting the Collier girls, but I guess I wouldn’t mind seeing Bonkers again from time to time. :)

Later on that evening, Mary, Shelly and I went out to the movies. There was nothing I really cared about seeing, so Shelly selected Eagle Eye. After finding out that the theater had discontinued the senior citizens’ discount, a circumstance that nearly caused Mary to come to blows with the ticket agent, I paid the ridiculous price of $30 for three tickets, vowing sullenly to never again visit that theater.

Things didn’t get much better with the movie. About midway through, I leaned over to Shelly and whispered "This is an insult to our intelligence." Afterwards, the two girls had to listen to my haranguing of all the plot inconsistencies and sheer unbelievability of certain things. Shelly pointed out I had little problem with Transformers and Terminator. The difference is, it’s fine when a movie asks you to suspend disbelief for a single plot element (robots from space, cyborgs from the future), but you can’t ask the audience to accept more than one or two unbelievable things in the same movie. Right around the time a power line came down and precision-fried an uncooperative jeweler, I was thinking "OK, if the villain here is anyone other than God himself, this is just silly."

Then, just to add a little bit of groan-worthy political correctness to the egregious brain damage this movie had already inflicted, a character ended with the moral of the story being the standard line about ‘in protecting ourselves, let's not go so far we that we lose the freedoms that make America great’, or words to that effect.

Sorry to go off on a rant right in the middle of weekend update here, but this tripe has been repeated ad nauseam since shortly after 9/11. By show of hands, how many of you have had a government agent show up on your doorstep asking about a book you checked out at the library? Has anyone had their phone tapped and been thrown in jail for speaking out against the government? The few people who have had their rights ‘violated’ were either not American citizens in the first place, or were American citizens fighting overseas against the American military, and the ACLU has been only too happy to make sure they get their day in court.

To the contrary, any reminder to Americans that they actually face legitimate dangers in the world is condemned as ‘fear-mongering’ or ‘a distraction’, and the fact that people actually buy those arguments just shows how incredibly and unexpectedly successful the strategies employed after 9/11 have been. The only reason people stand for the downplaying of fear of terrorism is because they’ve forgotten the horror they felt that day 7 years ago, the discomforting feeling of vulnerability and the stark realization that, no, we’re not impervious to foreign attack. I find it deeply ironic that President Bush’s stunning success in keeping the country from suffering another attack has sufficiently diminished the public’s worries about terrorism to the point where it now looks likely that a man who has shown virtually no leadership or courage in his political life, ever, and has no experience worth speaking of, is now on the verge of winning the Oval Office.

Oh wait, the movie! Well, even that wasn’t bad enough! The final 5 seconds of the movie deliver one final kick to the ribs. Come on! After all that, the hero doesn’t even merit a closed-mouth kiss on the lips? If the camera kept rolling another 3 seconds, I’m pretty sure Shia LaBeouf’s next line was "That’s the last time I defy a near-omnipotent super computer and get myself shot to keep you from getting blown up!"

Anyway, back to the weekend. Sunday, Shelly and I made lunch for Stefanie and her family. I include myself in that because I put a few trays in the oven and later helped carry them to and from the car. We did cheat a little and get the biscuits from Bojangles, but no one complained much. After lunch, we watched the Panthers play the Cardinals, with the Panther’s early play causing a few ulcers in the room, but they ended up on top 27 to 24, thanks to a botched extra point and a failed attempt to convert a 4th down with a faked punt on the part of the Cardinals. I had to content myself with the occasional flash of the score of the Ravens/Oakland game, which didn’t even make the halftime highlight reel, despite the unusual safety that apparently occurred early in the game. Here’s a picture I snuck with my phone:

As I guess most readers have picked up on by now, I recently got a new phone when my old one disappeared under mysterious circumstances. It was time anyway, as the old one had a bad crack in it, flipped back and forth freely with no resistance, and randomly powered off for no apparent reason (but I’m my father’s son, and I’d of kept using it anyway if I hadn’t ended up losing it). This new one has a 2 megapixel camera and Bluetooth (and a bunch of other features that I probably won’t ever use), and even it was on the low end of the spectrum of choices. Unfortunately, in a set of circumstances more befitting a classic Greek tragedy than real life, I actually took the time to write down all the numbers in my phone, but then somehow lost the sheet of paper (I suspect someone else in my household saw a random sheet of paper on the kitchen table and, being disinclined to tolerate clutter, disposed of it). So, basically, if you changed your number anytime recently, or if Shelly doesn’t also have your number, I probably can’t call you at this point. Do with that knowledge what seems best to you (IE, call me and make sure I have your number!).

Alright, just because it's getting incredibly late (Shelly's loudly sawing logs in the other room) and I'm tired and can't think of an appropriate segue, we went out with Erika and Charlotte this evening. Erika, desperate to avoid Jason's rage for a few hours, as she'd forgotten to order his John McCain mask in time for Halloween, met us at Panera's at Southpoint Mall for dinner. Charlotte was her usual photogenic self:

Her mom... (I can't decide whether to finish that sentence with "not so much" or "decide for yourself", so I'll just choose not to choose. Erika won't see me until the weekend anyway, so there will be no physical retribution for this... I hope.)

Good night, all. I hope you appreciate the sheer number of hyperlinks I had to put in this post! That alone kept me up another 20 minutes!

I Got to See Sarah! I Got to See Sarah!

(Since I’ve gotten behind again, I’m just going to work backwards. This is the most recent, blog-worthy event)

On Tuesday, after foregoing lunch the last two days to make up the hours, I left work early at 3:30pm. Shelly, unable to accompany me, remained at the Court of Appeals in Raleigh, (humorous phrase describing Shelly's work activities deleted due to frantic AM phone call requesting its removal). However, not to be wholly divest of human companionship, I picked up two other travel buddies, one willing, the other not so much.
Ditching my Buick, the three of us piled into the Four-runner and hit the road for Greenville, a little town in eastern North Carolina. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the event we were to attend was located at East Carolina University (Home of the Pirates, if shout-outs are to be believed). Putting our trust in the dash-mounted GPS, we got on the road at 3:45 and arrived at the town limits around 5:15 pm. I gained a new appreciation of the Four-Runner’s acceleration and top cruising speeds.
We arrived there safely, though we had a few tense moments about 5 minutes out of the venue, as we passed boarded-up warehouses, over-grown train tracks, and aimless street drifters galore. "Uh… are you sure you got the address right?" I asked. "If I were Sarah Palin, I don’t think I’d come here!" Fortunately, one wrong turn later and a short trip down a GPS-recommended gravel road, we saw an emblazoned sign proclaiming East Carolina University, and all was well.
All, that was, except for parking. After driving half a mile down the road, we finally happened upon a parking lot, which boasted not one empty spot. Circling around the back of a stadium, we found no other empty spots either, but did see an open gate leading into an empty field, which we entered. Helpful lot attendants directed us to an empty spot, whereupon we embarked on foot to the nearby Arena.
After passing through the metal detectors (I was a little unimpressed by the disinterest the searchers displayed in the diaper bag, which was passed through outside the detectors) we joined the mob entering the arena, and all was well.
All, that was, except for seating. The three of us walked round and round the arena, searching for two empty chairs. Finally, after two failed attempts to claim saved seats, we resigned ourselves to the nosebleed section, where our view would be partially obscured by the enormous American flag suspended from the ceiling. And, bear in mind, all of this was about an hour and a half before the keynote speaker was to take the podium.
Fortunately, other speakers passed the time. Two local politicians gave brief speeches, then Pat McCrory spoke, then Elizabeth Dole. Finally, around 7:30, the arena erupted in screams of "Palin! Palin! Palin!" (or was it "Sarah!"? It seemed interchangeable) and The Naughty Alaskan Librarian took the stage. (That’s not just my pet name for her; it was on an email forward my brother sent me.)
I’d already heard the stump speech a few times, so there wasn’t much new there. And between the lighting and the distance, my camera just wasn’t up to the task. Erika’s binoculars helped me get within ten feet of her, though. I did get this good shot of my travel companions, however:

Yep, that’s right! Jason lent me Erika and Charlotte for the evening! The latter was pretty good; she didn’t like sitting still much, especially after an hour and a half ride, so Erika had to take her down to the concourse a few times to walk around. But you can’t ask an awful lot of a toddler. She did draw a great deal of positive attention; the two girls behind us, age early twenties, spent almost as much time cooing over Charlotte’s cuteness as they did cheering. Charlotte especially brought down the house with her nearly intelligible attempt at chanting "Sarah!" along with the crowd! "Say-a!" Charlotte yelled excitedly. "Close enough!" the two girls laughed.

Here's about the best I could get:

Yeah, I know- real great shot.

And just as quickly, the event was over. Watching Palin work the crowd afterwards, shaking hands across the metal barricades, I lamented my lack of floor tickets, and wondered if I’d ever again get the chance. But I had a couple of ladies to see home, one of whom was very, very tired by that point. And since I didn’t want to deal with the wide-awake Charlotte by myself while Erika dozed, I got us on the way.
After a brief stop for gas, and a stop at the Wendy’s drive-through (the DeAdder women aren’t the only ones with an aversion to Burger King, apparently), we hit the road, taking 264 back to Raleigh, where we picked up 440 the rest of the way. We listened to the second presidential debate, though the AM stations carrying it were a little fuzzy.
After relinquishing the two of them to Jason, I took my car home, and finally, at 11 o’clock, put an end to my day. I fell asleep almost as soon as my head hit the pillow. I did manage to fake Shelly out and scare her, though: She called, and I told her I was still half an hour away, when in reality I was about 30 seconds from opening the front door. So, perfect end to a perfect day!

So, tomorrow's entry will be about our Charlotte trip last weekend.

VEEP Debate Redux

Can you all wait one more day for that update from last weekend? I promise I'll get it to you, but I feel the need to weigh in on the Biden/Palin debate that just ended.

Basically, it's getting increasingly clear to me that my reactions aren't at all representative of other Americans. Last weekend, I was sure McCain had won, but the after-action focus groups and the polling spoke otherwise. Tonight, Shelly and I actually had to mute the television during some of Palin's answers, so bad was the cringe factor. I felt she did better than Shelly (although her morph of the question about Israel into a discussion of Alaskan resource management almost had me in bitter tears), though I really felt Biden won hands down.

Apparently, though, the focus groups this time seem to think she won the debate, and feel better about her. In the group, 3 of the 4 who changed the way they were leaning moved towards John McCain, only one away. I guess maybe this is God's way of telling me to stop acting like I know everything about politics, just because I'm interested in the subject. (I sense some whoops of joy out there)

Alright, it's late and it's time for bed (it being the late hour of 11 o'clock and all). I'll post again tomorrow, with Myrtle Beach pictures as a little eye candy.